Agenda Setting: Russian Ukraine Conflict

 Found this blog post today. It sums up the entire Ukrainian war in a single post. The Western media wants to portray the Ukrainians as helpless victims besieged by the evil Russians while the Russians want to portray themselves as the good guys who are doing the right thing and are helping the world against the evil west (or the "Golden Billion") as Putin calls them. It ties up in a way to my earlier post about how Russian conspiracies want to penetrate into the developing world and convince them that the west is bad. In a way this will be bad if those in developing countries actually believe this. 

https://sites.psu.edu/jwaniewskicas272/2022/09/16/agenda-setting-the-russia-ukraine-conflict/

In any case, it will all be over once SHTF.

- Stay tuned 

Reviewing Commercials and the Intersection between Psychological Operations and the News Media

 Reading this weeks chapter about how the media can't really change perspectives but can enhance them by catering to them really reminds me of the current Special Operations Forces that we have and how they are doing psychological operations across the world and have been doing so for quite a while. Here's one example of the C.I.A working in the Phillipines. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pfsSh_fTAc

Pretty scary stuff. But something you would expect out of the U.S during the Cold War. And to think that this is the stuff that they DECIDED to release to the public. Anyways, they most certainly exploited the superstitions to their advantage. In Psychological Operations they adhere to the idea that you can't change people's minds either. There was another thing that I am reminded of that plays into stereotypes, although it is about our superstitions. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uNPZKJqbE8

The title of the commercial "Ghosts in the Machine" really says it all as it plays in on all of our conspiratorial beliefs like the illuminati and the idea of the U.S starting revolutions in distant countries (that one, though, is more routed in reality). In the end it encourages people to come join them in the most creepy but probably effective way to date (ignoring Emma and her two moms). 

Casualties Mounting on Ukrainian Lines? Positive Biases in the Ukraine war.

This week our learning material stressed nothing but the effects of media negativity on views of politicians. But what about when the media has positive biases? This can happen in wartime as there have been whole books written about how positive biases and overconfidence in winning can effect wars. 

https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674015760

There's also the fact that currently Ukraine is losing up to 1,000 men in the Donbass region since June. They also, of course, need more weapons to fight their war. 

https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-1000-casualties-day-donbas-arakhamia

There is also Russia's ability to effectively employ Shaheed-136 drones in Ukraine meaning that, "nowhere is safe." They will also soon be buying more missiles from Iran to shore up their dwindling missile supplies in the war against Ukraine. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpeSQ3ak3X8&t=305s

Now, overall Russia is still losing the war. What it needs to turn itself around is a battlefield victory to increase morale and then follow that up with more victories to secure their gains. All in all, highly unlikely, but you will never know what is true in the fog of war. 

- Stay Tuned 

The Strange Obsession with Dogs

 It's strange that we are doing a second week dedicated to commercials. Last week I reviewed some commercials (or rather instructional videos) about nuclear fallout. Now I am going to do something more lighthearted--dogs. Here's a rather well produced commercial by the Russians:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4McJYfW8vNA

It is slickly produced with good acting, good lighting, and heartwarming music. A rather cheap way to tug at our emotions it uses dogs and in the end tells us to "stop hating Russia." 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7KX7WZh98g

This one has cute dogs too. It also covers a lot about the Ukrainian effort to spread propaganda in the west. It includes a bunch of things such as celebrity meet-ups, sing-alongs, and displaying destroyed Russian arms and armament and uniforms. It is very interesting and everyone should watch this before things get worse. 

- Stay tuned 

Reviewing Nuclear Commercials:

 In this relatively short commercial from NYC Emergency Management called "Nuclear Preparedness PSA" we are told the three simple steps you need to survive a nuclear attack: 1) Get Inside 2) Stay Inside 3) Stay Tuned. In the commercial we here light, semi-serious music while a seemingly bi-racial woman in a black turtle-neck and pants elaborate on these three steps in detail. This all takes place before the backdrop of a digitally animated city landscape and inside of an upper-class apartment living room. The video, I think, is pretty informative for it's length (one minute and thirty seconds). 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-5d7V4Sbqk

The second commercial (or more like an instructional video) is from 1959. It starts off with a sort of Twilight Zone intro and then gets into a cartoon where a man and his family survive a nuclear apocalypse. It takes place in various bomb shelters and tells you how to stock up to survive. This commercial is very much like the first commercial, except much more detailed, but this is very much due to it's longer running time. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_gTGB6-9BQ

Either way, commercials like this carry immense weight in helping people adjust to what may soon come.

- Stay Tuned

Putin's Not-so Model Minority: The Chechens

The Chechens are a muslim minority of the northern caucuses who have had a long and bloody past fighting against the Russian empire since the mid 1800's. The most recent wars took place in the mid nineties and late nineties, both were bloody--with Russia indiscriminately targeting civilians in the city of Grozny and elsewhere. During that time, Ramzan Kadyrov entered the picture during the second Chechnya war in 1999. He took over his father's ruthless, private army, also known as the Kadyrovsty, and joined sides with Putin--finishing up the war. Then, after his father's unresolved assassination in 2004 took over the Chechen province and became known as "Chechen Putin" due to his ruthlessness. Now with the "Special Military Operation" in the Ukraine Kadyrov has become a vocal and ardent supporter of the war--criticizing generals for losing battles and desiring to send his teenage sons into battle (or at least making Tik Tok videos about it). Along with this is a sort of psychological warfare where Putin is claiming to send "70,000" Chechens to boost the war effort. There has been a concerted effort on Tik Tok to showcase these Chechen soldiers as a terrible force to be reckoned with. However, there have been numerous experts that have disputed the ability that Russia will mobilize this many new soliders and that Chechens are not as intimidating as they make themselves out to be. Still, it is rather disturbing how Russia is so willing to use this oppressed minority by pressing them into military service like this. 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/11/kadyrov-criticises-russias-stunning-setback-in-ukraine

https://www.thedailybeast.com/chechen-leader-ramzan-kadyrov-vows-to-send-his-own-underage-sons-to-fight-in-ukraine

https://inkstickmedia.com/on-chechen-soldiers-in-ukraine/

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/russia-chechen-fighters-ukraine/

No Joke Title: The Second 9/11 of this Century--The Nord Stream Pipelines Sabotage

 On September 26th a permanent rupture was created between Russia and the European continent. This happened when the two most important energy pipelines Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 burst in four  places. The two pipelines, which delivered 130 billion metric tons of gas to europeans every year was now spilling hundreds of millions of metric tons of gas into the ocean--making it visible from space. With this ended the era of Ostpolitick--the oil based relationship that lasted since 1969 with German Chancellor Willy Brandt. It has lasted throughout the Cold War and the chaotic decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union. At this point--the relationship between Russia and Europe will never return to what it was. There is also a lot of finger-pointing as Russia and the U.S try to blame each other. There is, in a way, a case for both scenarios--Russia, finding that its energy black-mail is failing with Europe decides to destroy the pipeline as a way to cripple Europe by either harming its economy or making Europeans unable to heat their homes or both. The U.S could decide to sabotage the pipeline to isolate Russia from Europe and to draw Europe closer to its circle of influence. Either way, sabotaging the pipeline would necessitate advanced underwater unmanned drones--which is why I believe the U.S is the more likely culprit because I believe that they have greater ability to posses, upkeep, and use these drones than Russia does. There has been some exaggeration about Biden's statements to "end Nord Stream" but I think that is exaggerated. Either way we won't know for a while--but recent evidence from Swedish police has confirmed that it is indeed sabotage. All we do know, however, is that the war will get increasingly worse as Europe will have to invest more in clean energy and get natural gas from the U.S and Nordic countries while Russia will draw closer to China and sell its natural gas to them. With winter coming up and both economies unstable the war will be sure to take it's toll on both sides. 

- Stay Tuned